CEE 2011 Annual Conference
CEE 2011 Annual Conference: Macroeconomic and Financial Imbalances in National Economies and the World
19 December 2011, Monday
Rectorate Conference Hall
Boğaziçi University, Istanbul
09:00 - 09:20 - Registration
09:20 -09:30 - Welcome Note
Kadri Özçaldıran, Rector (Boğaziçi University)
Refik Erzan, Director (CEE, Boğaziçi University)
09:30 - 11:30 - Session 1: Open Economy Macroeconomics
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Mehmet Caner, North Carolina State University (with Fritzi Koehler-Geib, World Bank; Thomas Grennes, North Carolina State University)
“Short Run versus Long Run Optimal Public Debt/GDP in Emerging and Rich Economies”
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Wolf Wagner, Tilburg University (with Charles M. Kahn, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign)
“Sources of Liquidity and Liquidity Shortages”
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Micheal Binder, Goethe University Frankfurt (with Christian J. Offermans, Free University Berlin; Daniel Schneider, Goethe University Frankfurt)
“The Re-Emergence of Purchasing Power Parity in Large Panels”
11:30-11:45 - Coffee Break
11:45- 13:00 - Session 2: Financial Markets
Chair: Lokman Gündüz (Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey)
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Burak Saltoğlu, Boğaziçi University (with Taylan Yenilmez, Tinbergen Institute)
“Analyzing Systemic Risk with Financial Networks: An Application During a Financial Crash”
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Jose Rodriguez Mora, University of Edinburgh (with Christian Bauer, LMU Münich)
"Equilibrium Intermediation and Resource Allocation with a Frictional Credit Market"
13:00-14:30 - Lunch, Kennedy Lodge
14:30- 16:15 - Session 3: Macroeconomic Risk
Chair: Micheal Binder (Goethe University Frankfurt)
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Giancarlo Corsetti, University of Cambridge (with Keith Kuester, FED Philadelphia; Andre Meier, IMF; Gernot Müller, University of Bonn)
“Sovereign Risk and the Effects of Fiscal Retrenchment in Deep Recessions”
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Iftekhar Hasan, Fordham University
“Bank Supervision and Information Content in Bank Stock Price: Global Evidence”
16:15-16:45 - Coffee Break
16:45- 18:00 - Session 4: Bussiness Cycles
Chair: Giancarlo Corsetti (University of Cambridge)
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Yavuz Arslan, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (with Mustafa Kılınç, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey)
“Trend Shocks, Non-tradable Goods and Exchange Rate”
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Kamil Yılmaz, Koç University
“International Business Cycle Connectedness”
18:00-18:30 - Coffee Break
18:30- 19:45 - Key Note Speech
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Varadarajan V. Chari, University of Minnesota & FED Minneapolis
20:00-22:00 - Cocktail Prolongé, Natuk Birkan Building, 2nd Floor
20 December 2011, Tuesday
Rectorate Conference Hall (A) & Washburn Hall, Heritage Room (B)
Boğaziçi University, Istanbul
08:30 - 10:30 - Session A1: Banking and Competition
Chair: Levent Yıldıran (Boğaziçi University)
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Efthymios Tsionas, Athens University of Economics and Business (with Mohammed Shaban, University of Leicester)
“Banking Competition and the Lending Channel”
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Didar Erdinç, American University in Bulgaria
“Monetary Transmission and Bank Lending Under Currency Board”
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Ahmet Faruk Aysan, Boğaziçi University (with Levent Yıldıran, Boğaziçi University; Güzin Gülsün Akın, Boğaziçi University; Serap Özçelik, Boğaziçi University)
“Determinants of Customer Satisfaction in the Turkish Credit Card Market”
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Levent Yıldıran, Boğaziçi University (with Güzin Gülsün Akın, Boğaziçi University; Ahmet Faruk Aysan, Boğaziçi University; Şebnem İleri, Borsa İstanbul)
“Demand, Competition and Welfare Analysis in the Turkish Banking Sector”
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Enes Sünel, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (with Temel Taşkın, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey)
Session B1: Financial Markets
Chair: Güzin Gülsün Akın (Boğaziçi University)
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Ahmet Duran, Istanbul Technical University
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Kağan Parmaksız, Middle East Technical University
“Optimal Fiscal Policy with Default Option over the Business Cycle”
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Mehmet Uğur, University of Greenwich (with Nawar Hashem, University of Greenwich)
"Product-Market Competition, Corporate Governance and Innovation: Evidence on US-listed Firms”
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Derya Taş, University of Southampton
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Yavuz Arslan, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey
“Optimal Information Policy”
10:30-10:45 - Coffee Break
10:45- 12:45 - Session A2: Growth, Productivity and Employment
Chair: Ceyhun Elgin (Boğaziçi University)
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Mustafa Ismihan, Atılım University
“A New Framework for Output-unemployment Relationship: Okun's Law Revisited”
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Oğuz Öztunalı, Boğaziçi University (with Ceyhun Elgin, Boğaziçi University)
“Shadow Economy and the Environment”
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Emekcan Yücel, Boğaziçi University (with Ceyhun Elgin, Boğaziçi University)
“Leisure and the Informal Sector”
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Tolga Umut Kuzubaş, Boğaziçi University (with Ceyhun Elgin, Boğaziçi University)
"Wage-Productivity Gap in OECD Economies: Theory and Evidence from Panel-VAR”
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Murat Koyuncu, Boğaziçi University (with Stephen Turnovsky, University of Washington)
“Growth and Income Inequality under Progressive Taxation”
10:45- 12:45 - Session B2: Macroeconomic Balances
Chair: Gökhan Özertan (Boğaziçi University)
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Abdullah Yalaman, Eskişehir Osmangazi University (with Mardi Dungey, University of Tasmania; Jet Holloway, University of Tasmania)
“Characterizing Financial Crises through Spectrum of High Frequency Data”
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Mehmet Hüseyin Bilgin, Istanbul Medeniyet University (with Gökhan Karabulut, İstanbul University; Giray Gözgör, Doğuş University)
“Purchasing Power Parity Hypothesis: Evidence from Eastern Europe Emerging Markets”
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Necati Tekatlı, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (with Gönül Çolak, Florida State University)
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Yavuz Arslan, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (with Mustafa Kılınç, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey; İbrahim Turhan, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey)
“Global Imbalances, Current Account Rebalancing and Exchange Rate Adjustments”
12:45-13:45 - Lunch, Kennedy Lodge
13:45- 15:45 - Session A3: Financial Risk and Housing
Chair: Ahmet Faruk Aysan (CBRT & Boğaziçi University)
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Mustada Dişli, Koen Schoors (with Iris Vermeir, University of Gent)
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Orhan Erem Ateşağaoğlu, Stony Brooks University (with Alexis Anagnostopulos, Stony Brook University; Eva Carceles-Poveda, Stony Brook University)
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Haluk Çitçi, Sabancı University (with Eren İnci, Sabancı University)
“The Masquerade Ball of the CEO's and the Mask of Excessive Risk”
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Orhan Erdem, Istanbul Bilgi University (with Ali Coşkun, Boğaziçi University)
“Analysis of Housing Demand”
Session B3: Banking and Regulation
Chair: Tolga Umut Kuzubaş (Boğaziçi University)
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Emre Özsöz, Fordham University (with Ahmet Faruk Aysan, Boğaziçi University; Erick Rengifo, Fordham University)
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Deniz Kozanoğlu, GATE-LSE - Université Jean Monnet
“Towards the Emergence of Regulation Structures on the Before and After Crisis Soundness of Banking Sector: A Cross-Country Perspective”
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Nihat Gümüş, Istanbul Bilgi University
“Exploring the Effect of Regulation Structures on the Before and After Crisis Soundness of Banking Sector: A Cross-Country Perspective”
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İsmail Genç, American University of Sharjah (with George Naufal, American University of Sharjah; Ali Termos, American University Beirut)
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Bülent Eşiyok, University of Greenwich (with Mehmet Uğur, University of Greenwich)
“Provincial-Level Economic Governance Quality and FDI: Evidence on Vietnam Using a Spatial Autoregressive Model”
15:45-16:00 - Coffee Break
16:00- 18:00 - Session A4: Turkish Economy
Chair: Burak Saltoğlu (Boğaziçi University)
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Ege Yazgan, Istanbul Bilgi University (with Hüseyin Kaya, Bahçeşehir University)
“Forecasting of Macro Aggregates in Turkish Economy”
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Orhan Erdem, Istanbul Bilgi University (with Yusuf Varlı, Istanbul Bilgi University)
“Understanding the Sovereign credit Ratings of Turkey”
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Öner Günçavdı, Istanbul Technical University (with Fuat Erdal, Istanbul Technical University)
“Financial and Real Source of Misalignments in Turkish Lira: Does Good Macroeconomic Governance Matter?”
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Hüseyin Öztürk, Hacettepe University (with Murat Ertuğrul, Hacettepe University)
“The Determinants of Turkish CDS Price Volatility: Local or International Oriented?”
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Ümit Özlale, TOBB ETU
“Structural Budget Balance Estimation for Turkish Economy”
Session B4: Growth, Development and Business Cycles
Chair: Murat Koyuncu (Boğaziçi University)
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Nihal Bayraktar, Penn State University (with Blanca Moreno-Dodson, World Bank)
“Public Spending, Its Components and Growth”
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İnci Gümüş, Sabancı University (with Berrak Bahadır, University of Georgia)
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Ceyhun Elgin, Boğaziçi University (with Rasim Burak Uras, Tilburg University)
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Mehmet Babacan, University of Istanbul Chamber of Commerce
“The Role of Governance in International Trade”
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Orhan Torul, University of Maryland
“Higher Education in a Heterogeneous-Agent Economy: Revisiting the Transatlantic Differences”
18:00-18:30 - Coffee Break
18:30- 19:45 - Panel: Global Imbalances and Prospects for Turkish Banking
Chair: Refik Erzan (Boğaziçi University)
Panelists:
Cevdey Akçay, Chief Economist (Yapı Kredi Bank)
Kenan Alpdündar, Department of Banking and Financial Institutions (CBRT)
Serkan Özcan, Chief Economist (Vakıfbank)
Murat Ülgen, Chief Economist (HSBC Turkey)
19:45-21:00 - Farewell Cocktail, Rectorate Conference Hall